Friday, May 9, 2008

Lebanon is now in Hezbollah Hands.

This is a follow up to yesterday's post.

Yesterday I posted Has Hezbollah Bitten Off More Than it Can Chew. In it I laid out the infamous history of terror Hezbollah has and an analysis of what might be. Today I will expand on that analysis and the possible outcomes of the events unfolding in Lebanon will bring.

Yesterday fighting broke out in Beirut. Hezbollah started taking over Sunni neighborhoods and closed the airport off. Today Hezbollah controls 1/2 of Beirut. Although they are handing the neighborhoods they control over to the Lebanese Army, make no doubt that they are in charge.

And what is the Lebanese Army doing? Nothing! They stand by and watch their nation becoming an Iranian puppet. Are their officers afraid that if they try to stop Hezbollah when the takeover is complete they will be taken out and shot? Yes. For that is the modus operandi of terror groups when they conquer a nation. So they sit back and watch, praying for a miracle, but doing nothing to stop the violence.

Middle East analysts are shaking their heads and wondering how did this happen? It is very simple, the UN allowed it to happen. The UN knew that Iran was suppling arms to Hezbollah, it told its peacekeepers to look the other way. UNIFIL kept finding Hezbollah arms and did nothing to stop the flow.

Armed Hezbollah militants warded off members of the United one Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) last month when the peacekeepers discovered a truck carrying weapons and ammunition belonging to the Lebanon-based guerrilla group.

Just one of many times they failed. But this was to be expected when UN Security Council Resolution 1701 was passed. It called for a cease-fire, but also for the disarming of Hezbollah.

1. Calls for a full cessation of hostilities based upon, in particular, the immediate cessation by Hezbollah of all attacks and the immediate cessation by Israel of all offensive military operations;

2. Upon full cessation of hostilities, calls upon the Government of Lebanon and UNIFIL as authorized by paragraph 11 to deploy their forces together throughout the South and calls upon the Government of Israel, as that deployment begins, to withdraw all of its forces from southern Lebanon in parallel;

15. Decides further that all States shall take the necessary measures to prevent, by their nationals or from their territories or using their flag vessels or aircraft:

(a) The sale or supply to any entity or individual in Lebanon of arms and related materiel of all types, including weapons and ammunition, military vehicles and equipment, paramilitary equipment, and spare parts for the aforementioned, whether or not originating in their territories; and

(b) The provision to any entity or individual in Lebanon of any technical training or assistance related to the provision, manufacture, maintenance or use of the items listed in subparagraph (a) above; except that these prohibitions shall not apply to arms, related material, training or assistance authorized by the Government of Lebanon or by UNIFIL as authorized in paragraph 11;

Funny that Israel complied but Hezbollah did not. Nor did Syria, Iran and others. But who got the blame for violations? Israel. Again the Tower of Babel shows its bias against Israel and applauds the actions of terrorists.

So Hezbollah has rearmed and is stronger than before.

Israel Radio has just reported that Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Saniora will resign tonight. The report comes from two television stations, NBN and an Iranian station. In return, Hezbullah will withdraw its forces.

There, Hezbollah has gotten what it wanted. The collapse of the Lebanese government and has set the stage for its takeover.

Will Hezbollah then attack Israel? Not right away. It take time to take over an army. And make no doubt they will take over all command of the Lebanese Army. They will first infiltrate (if they haven't already done so) key units (
Commando, Mechanized, Armored, Special Forces) then either by placing their own people in command, or by assassination, they will overcome the rest. This takes time. Then they will attack.

But can Israel withstand an attack from Lebanon? Let us look at the current strength of the Lebanese Army. These are rough estimates:

  • 304 Tanks
  • 1591 Light and Heavy Armored Vehicles
  • 161 Artillery
  • 51 Helicopters
Plus whatever can be brought in from Syria and Iran openly. In 6 months Lebanon can have a formidable military machine with "volunteers" from Iran's Revolutionary Guard. Thus added to the threat.

Now lets us turn our heads at Israel. For the last few years Israel has an ineffective and weak government. Olmert's government is riddled with scandal and abuse. He himself is under investigation and will be gone soon. Tzipi Livni will step in and try to keep the collation together. She will fail and new election will be held. The nation will hold its breath, but I believe that Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu will return as Prime Minister. Thus return Israel to a position of strength.

The 2007 Winograd Commission sent the IDF a clear message. Clean up your act! And the IDF went into action. They went back into training. Today's IDF is a much different than the one Hezbollah fought in 2006.

So what will be holding Hezbollah back from attacking before a new government in Israel is formed. Two words: United States. They are waiting to see what will happen in the November elections. Right now Israel has a very strong friend in the Security Council. One who will rearm her and
support her actions. But that may not be the case in the future. Military planners have different scenarios for various events, I give you just one of these scenarios.

The United States Invades Israel

This isn't science fiction, it is an actual scenario that US military planners have worked on. The background of above is the basis of it.

On January 20, 2009 Barak Hussein Obama is sworn in a President of the United States. His Middle East advisors are all from the Carter era including Zbigniew Brzezinski and Samantha Power. They start a very pro-Arab, anti-Israel foreign policy starting with the cutting of aid to Israel.

In the summer of 2009 (it can be no earlier than this due to the weather), Hezbollah and Hamas step up attacks on Israel. Israel mobilizes. Hezbollah then instigates another war (kidnapping of a soldier for instance). Israel attacks Lebanon. Hamas tries a breakout of Gaza (like the one the did in Egypt), Israel finally attacks in full.

Muslims take to the streets of all major European and US cities, screaming for a cease-fire, for the UN to condemn Israel. The UN Security Council passes a resolution condemning Israel but not Hezbollah and Hamas. The US does not veto this or any other resolution. Israel ignores the UN for once.

Iran gets into the act and launches Nuclear attacks on one or more of Israel's cities. As her cities burn the IAF retaliates and launches their own Nuclear weapons against Iran. Instead of condemning Iran for lying about its nukes, they fully condemn Israel and a multi-national military force is formed to invade Israel. The US takes the lead and orders its Navy to launch its fighters against Israel. The US Army sends 150,000 troops to invade.

Israel is not Iraq. 3/4 of the population of Israel is fully trained in military combat. Many are reservists and veterans of Israel's many wars. The invasion will not be the cakewalk that Iraq was. On the first day the US loses 2/3 of its fighter jets and has loses of 30% of its invasion force. Trying to take a kibbutz, a village, a town will be a slow and tedious job. If you think the insurgency in Iraq is bad, think what type of insurgency there will be in Israel. The Israelis will not give up any square meter of ground without a fight. Every man, woman and child would be fighting. They are fighting for their lives. The only places where Americans would be welcomed would be in Muslim towns and villages. After a week American loses would be in the tens of thousands and Israeli loses in the hundred of thousands. And still, the Israelis would not surrender.

If you think that this is an impossible scenario, think again. US military planners have played this out for years. They add the following to the scenario:

The rounding up of all members of the Jewish faith and the subsequence interment of them. How easy would it be to go from interment to death chambers?


MathewK said...

The only reason the UN intervened in the last was with Hizbollah was to ensure that they weren't finished off. Now they have regrouped and are ready to kill more Jews, which is really what the UN and the left want.

The left insist that Hitler wasn't a socialist, leftist slimeball like most of the other tyrants. And they also insist they don't hate Jews. Yet they're always working to save/strengthen those who wish to finish the holocaust, funny that.

Dag said...

I've been on the road now for around 30 years or maybe a bit more, seldom going home, not finding much there I recognize when I do go back. It's not so important, really, so long as I keep America in my mind and in my heart. But I'm becoming more alarmed as these past years go by, more and more concerned that my home isn't home at all, and that if I were to go back I'd be in an alien land, a land full of aliens and people worse than those I'd left to return home to. Maybe those who stayed and those who came meantime and those who were there and grew up to hate my country are Americans more than I am now. Maybe I'm not normal at all.

I lived in Israel for a few years, some years back, till 2001 when I came home for a bit. I had to leave again. I couldn't stand the "Americans," and worse, the others I encountered as well. Israel was the home I left all those years ago, as American as anywhere in my home town. Some one, I think, is taking over my country, and they are wrecking it, and I hate it.

I'm not a criminal, and I can't recommend others break our laws. Still, I do recommend that we fight for our nation. There are ways. They are legal. We can win. It's in the mind. We can win by wanting to win, and if we do we will. I like to think we'll win by doing the right thing and come to our victory proud of our achievement. But if not, still, we must fight to win.

I liked your post. It makes me long for home very badly this evening. Next year in America.

Regards, Dag Walker,
Vancouver, Canada.

KG said...

America under the Democrats invading Israel doesn't seem at all far-fetched to me.
But, given enough warning I'm sure thousands of jews would arrive to fight for her.
And what of those of us who love America but support Israel and her right to exist? God forbid I should ever have to take up arms against America, but in this case.....

Aurora said...

Katie, you've taken my breath away. The scenario you post here is unthinkable, yet entirely plausible. I personally believe that Obama will win the presidency and set off a chain of events unimaginable to any previous generation of Americans. God help us and I mean that sincerely. I've linked to you on this.

Michael Travis said...

Dag Walker, ("Dag" is Hebrew for "fish"!!!)

Good one, believe me, I understand.

KG_ "America under the Democrats invading Israel doesn't seem at all far-fetched to me."

True, however, the GOP under the Bushkis win hands down when it comes to threatening an invasion ["Military intervention in the Israeli Palestinian Conflict"] of Israel. Except for Reagan and Truman....all US Presidents had similar plans.....IKE was honest enough to say later that siding with the Arabs against Israel was a mistake.

The only country that the Bushkis hate more than the United States of America....and they are determined to eliminate both of them. (Of course B.Hussein.O' & Billary have the same plans.)

Dag said...

Michael, your Hebrew isn't exactly perfect, but it's a far cry better than anything my Scottish parents had. I hadn't ever give any thought to your reference, which gives me cause for chuckles, a rare thing for Puritans such as I. Thank you, sir.

Our hostess above offers that we are invited to show our faces, as it were, and I'll take this opportunity to extend an invitation to the pubic to come and actually see mine in public, if one lives in or visits Vancouver,Canada. My colleagues here and I meet each Thursday evening at the main public library in the atrium outside Blenz coffee bar to discuss current events regarding jihad and Left dhimmi fascism. We sit openly each week from 7-900 p.m. welcoming any and all who come to meet us and discuss. This is now well into our third year. Yes, there have been some tense moments, but very seldom have we been beheaded, though occasionally there are times it does feel that some of our 'visitors' have left me with the feeling that I am indeed losing my head. Otherwise, what might seem the most dangerous provocation of jihadis is nothing of the sort, they being incapable of organizing an attack on grown men, preferring instead to attack the helpless, children in schools, people in office buildings, and so on.

Blogging is a fine thing, as witnessed here; but for those who are serious about affecting social change in a positive way one need engage in direct action, in a limited sense, which we do by publicly presenting ourselves weekly and by physically confronting Death Hippies at any event we can make it too to present our opposition to their agenda. No need to be anonymous. Jihadis will as likely harm you for doing nothing as they will for confronting them, as witnessed on 7/7, for example.

Michael, you and your friend and neighbours have no need of concern for your safety regarding jihadis. Yes, one did murder Theo van Gogh, but he is merely one of many thousands murdered in the West recently, and the odds are greater you will be killed as an anonymous person than by directly confronting them. To conclude, then, rather than offering an Internet critique of the president, one might consider sitting openly in public to engage the people in public debate to win over friends and colleagues locally for the sake of changing pubic opinion in a more dynamic fashion.

We advertise our meetings weekly at Covenant Zone and No Dhimmitude. We've had some limited success in drawing to our meetings scholars and thinkers and activists from around the world to join us and contribute to our understanding of our unhappy situation and that of our publicities here and abroad. We do it, and so can and do others.

Our is a Covenant Zone. You and others are welcome to join us. As always, the coffee is on me. If I happen to approve of you personally, cream and sugar are included in the offer gratis.

Best regards, Dag Walker,
Vancouver, Canada.

Michael Travis said...

Hi Dag ('s "Fish").

Our little group, in the States, Israel....and Canada, try our best to expose the truth about the Jihadis in our midst and the real threat to our survival that these barbarians pose to civilised society. For our efforts we are rewarded by offers of unpaid television appearances, buffets at Intelligence Symposiums, less than lucrative book deals, and multi-million dollar lawsuits filed by upstanding members of the Moslem Brotherhood who staff certain Universities in places like Hamilton Ontario......and offended Hamas supporters in Dallas (Irving) Texas......and the list goes on and on,,,

Trouble maker that I am...I may be able to connect you to a few fearless souls in the Vancouver-Burnaby area......just a thought!

Peace, veh kol tuv,


Findalis said...

Dag if you send me the details of your weekly meetings I'll post them in my sidebar.

Although I don't live in Vancouver, I'd attend them. If I'm ever your way, I certainly will attend.

I will do this for any such gathering in our cause. The more "networking" we do, the more we meet and plan, the more of us who finally get off our backsides and actually take a stand, the stronger we become.

It is time we stand up and be counted!

Dag said...

Michael, I hope to see your troubles pay off well for all of us.

I've had a few things to say about Elmasry, as I recall, none of them civil. The closest I've come to gaining unwanted attention from the other side was Sid Vicious Ryan, who attempted to sue me, offering to file suit-- on Sept. 11, 2006 due to my "terrorist" attacks on him. You're way ahead of me there, though I must confess, I have a competitive side.

Please tell your friends to feel free to join us at their convenience. We are identifiable by the Israeli flags on our baseball caps and/or blue scarves. It's the flags that really piss-off the jihadis!

Hello, KG.

And thank you, madam, for hosting this discussion.

Findalis said...

Your welcome Dag. Discussion is always welcomed here. Even if the writer is Pro-Jihad. An open forum is the answer to suppression of Free Speech. And the Jihadist doesn't want Free Speech. Only their speech.

If I make it up to Vancouver, I will attend your group. It should be interesting, to say the least. Maybe I could find an Israeli flag shirt to piss the Jihadists off.

Dag said...

The flag is on me!

I'll see if I can manage some kind of synopsis of our meeting next. Thanks very much.

Best Regards, Dag.

Findalis said...

And I'll post it here on the blog, Dag.

Dag said...
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Dag said...
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Dag said...
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Findalis said...

Dag for the future posts would you send them to

That way I can easily post them to the blog.

Thank you.