Yesterday I posted Has Hezbollah Bitten Off More Than it Can Chew. In it I laid out the infamous history of terror Hezbollah has and an analysis of what might be. Today I will expand on that analysis and the possible outcomes of the events unfolding in Lebanon will bring.
Yesterday fighting broke out in Beirut. Hezbollah started taking over Sunni neighborhoods and closed the airport off. Today Hezbollah controls 1/2 of Beirut. Although they are handing the neighborhoods they control over to the Lebanese Army, make no doubt that they are in charge.
And what is the Lebanese Army doing? Nothing! They stand by and watch their nation becoming an Iranian puppet. Are their officers afraid that if they try to stop Hezbollah when the takeover is complete they will be taken out and shot? Yes. For that is the modus operandi of terror groups when they conquer a nation. So they sit back and watch, praying for a miracle, but doing nothing to stop the violence.
Middle East analysts are shaking their heads and wondering how did this happen? It is very simple, the UN allowed it to happen. The UN knew that Iran was suppling arms to Hezbollah, it told its peacekeepers to look the other way. UNIFIL kept finding Hezbollah arms and did nothing to stop the flow.
Armed Hezbollah militants warded off members of the United one Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) last month when the peacekeepers discovered a truck carrying weapons and ammunition belonging to the Lebanon-based guerrilla group.
Just one of many times they failed. But this was to be expected when UN Security Council Resolution 1701 was passed. It called for a cease-fire, but also for the disarming of Hezbollah.
1. Calls for a full cessation of hostilities based upon, in particular, the immediate cessation by Hezbollah of all attacks and the immediate cessation by Israel of all offensive military operations;
2. Upon full cessation of hostilities, calls upon the Government of Lebanon and UNIFIL as authorized by paragraph 11 to deploy their forces together throughout the South and calls upon the Government of Israel, as that deployment begins, to withdraw all of its forces from southern Lebanon in parallel;15. Decides further that all States shall take the necessary measures to prevent, by their nationals or from their territories or using their flag vessels or aircraft:
(a) The sale or supply to any entity or individual in Lebanon of arms and related materiel of all types, including weapons and ammunition, military vehicles and equipment, paramilitary equipment, and spare parts for the aforementioned, whether or not originating in their territories; and
(b) The provision to any entity or individual in Lebanon of any technical training or assistance related to the provision, manufacture, maintenance or use of the items listed in subparagraph (a) above; except that these prohibitions shall not apply to arms, related material, training or assistance authorized by the Government of Lebanon or by UNIFIL as authorized in paragraph 11;
Funny that Israel complied but Hezbollah did not. Nor did Syria, Iran and others. But who got the blame for violations? Israel. Again the Tower of Babel shows its bias against Israel and applauds the actions of terrorists.
So Hezbollah has rearmed and is stronger than before.
Israel Radio has just reported that Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Saniora will resign tonight. The report comes from two television stations, NBN and an Iranian station. In return, Hezbullah will withdraw its forces.
There, Hezbollah has gotten what it wanted. The collapse of the Lebanese government and has set the stage for its takeover.
Will Hezbollah then attack Israel? Not right away. It take time to take over an army. And make no doubt they will take over all command of the Lebanese Army. They will first infiltrate (if they haven't already done so) key units (Commando, Mechanized, Armored, Special Forces) then either by placing their own people in command, or by assassination, they will overcome the rest. This takes time. Then they will attack.
But can Israel withstand an attack from Lebanon? Let us look at the current strength of the Lebanese Army. These are rough estimates:
- 304 Tanks
- 1591 Light and Heavy Armored Vehicles
- 161 Artillery
- 51 Helicopters
Now lets us turn our heads at Israel. For the last few years Israel has an ineffective and weak government. Olmert's government is riddled with scandal and abuse. He himself is under investigation and will be gone soon. Tzipi Livni will step in and try to keep the collation together. She will fail and new election will be held. The nation will hold its breath, but I believe that Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu will return as Prime Minister. Thus return Israel to a position of strength.
The 2007 Winograd Commission sent the IDF a clear message. Clean up your act! And the IDF went into action. They went back into training. Today's IDF is a much different than the one Hezbollah fought in 2006.
So what will be holding Hezbollah back from attacking before a new government in Israel is formed. Two words: United States. They are waiting to see what will happen in the November elections. Right now Israel has a very strong friend in the Security Council. One who will rearm her and support her actions. But that may not be the case in the future. Military planners have different scenarios for various events, I give you just one of these scenarios.
The United States Invades Israel
This isn't science fiction, it is an actual scenario that US military planners have worked on. The background of above is the basis of it.
On January 20, 2009 Barak Hussein Obama is sworn in a President of the United States. His Middle East advisors are all from the Carter era including Zbigniew Brzezinski and Samantha Power. They start a very pro-Arab, anti-Israel foreign policy starting with the cutting of aid to Israel.
In the summer of 2009 (it can be no earlier than this due to the weather), Hezbollah and Hamas step up attacks on Israel. Israel mobilizes. Hezbollah then instigates another war (kidnapping of a soldier for instance). Israel attacks Lebanon. Hamas tries a breakout of Gaza (like the one the did in Egypt), Israel finally attacks in full.
Muslims take to the streets of all major European and US cities, screaming for a cease-fire, for the UN to condemn Israel. The UN Security Council passes a resolution condemning Israel but not Hezbollah and Hamas. The US does not veto this or any other resolution. Israel ignores the UN for once.
Iran gets into the act and launches Nuclear attacks on one or more of Israel's cities. As her cities burn the IAF retaliates and launches their own Nuclear weapons against Iran. Instead of condemning Iran for lying about its nukes, they fully condemn Israel and a multi-national military force is formed to invade Israel. The US takes the lead and orders its Navy to launch its fighters against Israel. The US Army sends 150,000 troops to invade.
Israel is not Iraq. 3/4 of the population of Israel is fully trained in military combat. Many are reservists and veterans of Israel's many wars. The invasion will not be the cakewalk that Iraq was. On the first day the US loses 2/3 of its fighter jets and has loses of 30% of its invasion force. Trying to take a kibbutz, a village, a town will be a slow and tedious job. If you think the insurgency in Iraq is bad, think what type of insurgency there will be in Israel. The Israelis will not give up any square meter of ground without a fight. Every man, woman and child would be fighting. They are fighting for their lives. The only places where Americans would be welcomed would be in Muslim towns and villages. After a week American loses would be in the tens of thousands and Israeli loses in the hundred of thousands. And still, the Israelis would not surrender.
If you think that this is an impossible scenario, think again. US military planners have played this out for years. They add the following to the scenario:
The rounding up of all members of the Jewish faith and the subsequence interment of them. How easy would it be to go from interment to death chambers?