Olmert is on the way out!

Israel is faced with a multitude of problems. Iran trying to acquire nuclear weapons, Hamas rearming for further attacks, and Hezbollah preparing to destroy Israel. Through the last years the Prime Minister of Israel has been Ehud Olmert. He has led the Kadima party through a disastrous war with Lebanon, economic stagnation and is one of the most corrupt Prime Ministers that Israel has ever had. Olmert has done everything to try and stay in power. He has agreed to a truce with Hamas (without the release of Gilad Schalit), offered to give up Jerusalem and the Golan Heights (something the majority of Israelis do not want), and has refused to resign even though he has been investigated 5 times for corruption and bribe taking.

But now it seems that Olmert's days are numbered. On Wednesday a bill will be voted on in the Knesset that will dissolve the current government. Until now, Olmert and the Kadima party was able to hold their coalition government together. But now the Labor party has decided to vote for the bill.

The Labor party caucus decided a short time ago to back party chairman Ehud Barak and vote against the government Wednesday on a bill to dissolve the government. The decision effectively is the last nail in the coffin for the government of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

Three Labor Knesset Members, Education Minister Yuli Tamir (Labor) and MKs Amir Peretz and Yoram Marciano did not vote on the caucus decision. The bill, sponsored by Likud MK Silvan Shalom, has the backing of the other key coalition party, Shas, as well as Opposition parties.

With his coalition gone, Olmert has very few options. If the bill passes, then sometime after it, Ehud Olmert will hand in his resignation.

According to the sources, Olmert has yet to consult with his advisors on the issue, but his associates have already examined the possible outcomes of such a move and are expected to present their position to the prime minister.

"If the Knesset dissolution bill passes on Wednesday, the choice will be between resigning or having to face the government's collapse following a no-confidence vote," an Olmert aide said. "We'll have to seriously weigh both options.

Another Olmert associate said that in case the Knesset dissolution motion passes and the Shas ministers are fired, "Israel will have a minority government that would not be able to function and would be considered a joke".

In case Olmert resigns, an interim government would run the country until a new one is established or until general elections are held.

Labor Party Chairman Ehud Barak stated that he could support a new coalition government with Kadima heading it. This would mean that Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni could become the next Prime Minister of Israel (the second woman to do so).

It is doubtful that Kadima could form a new coalition and that sometime in November elections will be held. Whether Kadima under Livni's leadership could win enough seats to form a new government is doubtful. General consensus is that the Likud party will be asked to form a new government before the year's end and that their leader Benjamin Netanyahu will become Prime Minister for the second time.

On a personal note: I have been a Likud supporter for many years seeing them as the strongest political party in Israel. Since the late 70's I have found myself agreeing with their economic and foreign policy views. If Netanyahu and Likud is victorious in the next elections, the world will see no more disasters like the failed 2006 Lebanese War.